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Today's Competing Headlines

Don't bet on Gates' keynote predictions
- Associated Press

Predictions for Jobs' Macworld Keynote
- Newsfactor

The AP articles notes the following Gatesian introductions:

-- 1995: Bob GUI (failed)
-- 1999: Importance of XML (correct)
-- 2000: Networked mobile devices (still getting there)
-- 2001: XBox (success in units, failure in profits); TabletPCs (mediocre)
-- 2002: Mira entertainment device (failed), and SPOT pens and watches (failed)
-- 2003: Mira OEM (failed)

Really Dull Headlines

I dread the last two weeks of each year, as news agencies push out filler articles to cover their staff being off work. Some jaw-dropping headlines from this morning:

"More Americans Creating Content Online"
- WebProNews

"Americans are more wired, new-media survey finds"
- CNET

"Online dating brings hope and frustration"
- Reuters

"Mobile advertising still at tryout stage"
- Associated Press

"Search Blogs Awards Voting Is On"
- Search Engine Watch Blog

"Take movies, games to the next level"
- USA Today

"Jessica Alba pregnant and engaged"
- Reuters

"Raiders confident defense will improve"
- San Jose Mercury News

Ethical Egoism: HP Actions No Surprise

That the HP sting operation included the current CEO comes as no surprise to me. Higher-ups within corporations become paranoid about the outside world.

Former Intel CEO Andrew Grove titled his book, "Only the paranoid survive." That's true when it comes to competition -- you gotta be paranoid about the marketplace, even when no one is out to get you.

But paranoia can turn into a true psychosis about the competition. We sometimes call it "drinking the cool-aid." Everyone is out to get us. Since the survival of our corporation is the greatest good, the means justify the end. The end is eliminating the threat to our corporation's survival. The means is any way, fair or foul.

Ethicists call this "ethical egoism": the morality of an action is determined by the greatest good to myself (or corporation, in this case). In HP's case, upper management saw skirting laws as no hindrance to their actions. And their in-house ethicist could only close his eyes to what was happening.

Go Gonads, Go!

Friday evening on Vancouver's The Beat radio station, the DJ expressed his contempt for Hillary Duff's declaration that she loves being a virgin. I bet that's the one thing your boyfriend hates about you, he snarkily commented.

Why be down on women who refused to give into the genital needs of guys?

I don't normally listen to The Beat, but my daughter had it on while driving the car. Here's the irony: Earlier in the day, she had a debate with two boys -- all are in Grade 12 -- about having sex outside of marriage. She's against it; the boys, like the DJ, saw no problem with it.

For the DJ and guys in Grade 12, there is little understanding that when it comes to sex, it's the woman who gets screwed. The point to sex is to produce children, most seem to have forgotten. And so it's the woman who has to deal with birth control, getting pregnant, having abortions, being a single mom, getting STDs, or going through the agony of giving up the child to adoption....

Meanwhile, for the adolescent-minded men in the world, it's Go Gonads, Go!

Journalism Isn't Broken

I don't agree with "Journalism Is Broken," the title of recent opinion piece at .:c-lo.net:.

Instead, journalism is coming out of its strait-jacket. I know all about that, having grown up (til age 18) in a small town in northern Canada, where there were monopoly-level news sources:

- tv: a CBC affiliate,which meant the major news came from the CBC in Toronto. Two weeks late, because the reels of film had to be shipped by truck.
- radio: a CBC affiliate. At least the radio news were timely, if single-sourced.
- newspaper: a locally-printed, non-locally-owned weekly paper that still looks dreadful and reads nearly as bad today in 2006.

Today, I barely listen to the radio news or watch them on tv. I can't bare to hear deep-voiced news anchors telling me 1/3 of the story hours late. I've already read all kind of details on the Internet. The strait-jacket has been removed.

Journalism is not broken. It is inhabited by too many who think what they're doing is the norm. They're not thinking in terms of, "How can I do it better? How can I do it differently?"

Still, I do like these bullet points made by .:c-lo.net:.

* Objectivity is a load of bull. Transparency and honesty are not.
* Don’t act like opinions don’t exist. People need opinions.
* Redefine the concept of authority.

I like them, because I've been employing those concepts (and others) since accidentally becoming a journalist in 1985.

Journalism isn't broken. It just needs more people thinking every day, "How can I do it better? How can I do it differently?"

Writiing is Like Engineering

Don Beaton pased along this item from slash.dot: Present writing as an engineering problem by MarcusQ. His transposes engineering analysis over to the writing process:

1. Top down design.
2. Checking your facts.
3. Failure mode analysis.
4. Dependency analysis.
5. Optimization.
6. Structured testing.

The only one I object to is #1: Starting with an outline and working out the details is the normal way of tackling an engineering problem.

The assumption is being made that I, as a writer, know the outcome ahead of time. When writing a new book -- even on a sterile topic like CAD -- I don't know how it will turn out, because CAD is software that's written by humans who make mistakes (bugs, strange implementations of commands, inabilities inherent in the sw, etc). Unlike in fiction, where the author controls the plot, in non-fiction the facts control the author.

Even in brief blog entries, the outline changes as thoughts written down generate new notions (such as this sentence.)

One item missing from the list is the team of copy and technical editors, the second sets of eyes that check to see if the calculations (writing) are correct.

The Brokernet Silver Sting

Over at mobilemag.com, T.O. Whenham asks a rather narrow-minded question: "Can you name anything that is made in Hungary?" He's writing about the Brokernet Silver Sting supercar.

Yes: Rubik's Cube.
Yes: Graphisoft ArchiCAD, architectural CAD software that costs about $6000.
Yes: Composers with names like Franz Liszt, Brahms, Strauss, Bartok, and Kodaly.
And maybe broad-minded computer journalists, too.

In the background of the car's photo, you can see the Chain Bridge over the Danube River, and the castle on the hills of Buda (the car is on the Pest side of Budapest). I know, because unlike some computer journalists, I've been to Hungary.

Reporters Are Still Hoaxed

A wonderful story of how two Brits hoaxed the worldwide media -- including Time and Wired -- about their tooth phone: Lying Through Their Teeth.

The sad part is when magazines are incapable of admitting fault, such as Time: "Time is not selecting the best retail products, we are recognizing the concept and technology behind these inventions. Many inventions never see the light of day, and we are aware of that. We do, however, try to keep the number of pie-in-the-sky items to a minimum to ensure balance in the mix," said a staff writer who worked on the story but sounds like her reply was pre-written by the PR department.

Just another reason justifying me giving up on Time magazine nearly a decade ago.

Cloning Articles for Science Magazines

The lesson of cold fusion has not been learned. Scientific journals are again embarrassed by reporting on faked scientific results. This time, it's the result of being taken in by Dr. Hwang Woo Suk's impressive-sounding credentials and his research on the cloning of human cells from embryos.

This article, Clone Scientist Relied on Peers and Korean Pride from The New York Times, examines some -- but not all -- of the problems. In my view, the editors of Science and Nature magazines are getting off too lightly. Take, for example, this quote from the article:

Nature's reviewers did not ask Dr. Hwang to provide evidence that would have proved Snuppy was cloned from another dog. Dr. Campbell said that Nature, as part of its investigation of the article, would consider whether its standards of proof should be changed in the future.

They might consider implementing procedures to check for scientific fraud in the future? That's hubris at work. Here are some of the flaws identified by Nicholas Wade Wade in the NYT article, along with my added comments:

- Competition between science magazines over carrying the most stunning reports on scientific advances. When the TV news carries the results of a new study from a "highly respected" journal of medicine or science, this is not a news item: it's a PR stunt initiated out by the journal's publishers. I say it's not "news," because TV news organizations lack the ability to present findings of studies accurately. Just the fact that TV news readers used the adjective "highly respected" should set off a warning in your mind; news readers are in no position to determine whether a niche magazine is highly respected or not.

- Pride of association by other, independent scientists. The excuse was to produce confirmation of the results; the result was false confirmation. Hwang asked American researchers to be co-researchers and co-authors; they were so flattered at being asked that they didn't question the research -- or even get to see it. Fortunately, one of them had the strength to resign his post, and report his suspicions publicly.

- Compartmentalization of assistant researchers. The excuse was efficiency; the result was that no other scientist knew fully what was going on. Hwang used compartmentalization to hide the fact he was using (abusing) far more human embryos than reported.

- Nationalism driven by the government's goal to make South Korea the most advanced country in the world. Bureaucrats bestowed US$65 million on Hwang for his research, and awarded him the title of Outstanding Korean Scientist. The excuse was that the country wanted to believe it was on the forefront of "progress;" the result was international embarrassment.

- Lack of fraud detection at magazines and journals, who seem to think that scientists only work from the pure motive of research. The editor of Nature magazine admits, "Peer review is not set up to test for fraud. It is set up to provide expert assessment of the scientific credibility and reliability of what scientists report, taking the report itself in good faith." I sometimes get accused of being too skeptical in my upFront.eZine newsletter for CAD (computer-aided design), but skepticism is an effective BS filter.

As the understatement of the scandal, the editor of Science magazine, a Dr Kennedy mused: "It's a sad business. We don't feel like it's our best day" (koff, koff). The editors then admit faked research shows up in their magazines more than infrequently.

The scandal shows that even the most highly-placed scientists fall prey to their human pride. My son and I watched "The Island" last night, and its theme matches that of this Korean Kloning Krime: the greed for money and power overruling ethics and compassion for fellow humans.

The Puzzle of the Penguins

Our family watched "The March of the Penguins" movie last night. The DVD contains the original movie and a bonus movie. The more I watched this beautifully-made movie, the more puzzled I became. I admire the determination of the crew of three French moviemakers to track the mating cycle of the Emprorer Penguin for an entire year. Or was it 13 months? Both durations are given.

That's just one example of the many inconsistancies and missing bits of information that pop up all over the two productions. For instance, frequent use of slow-motion make the otherwise awkward, flightless birds more beautiful than in real life.

Inconsistant Distances

The movie's narrator (some guy with an impressive sounding voice) repeatedly reports that the mating area is 70 miles from the ocean, and even further during the winter when more ocean freezes up. The Bonus narrator (one of the movie crew) says the area is 60 miles away.

When the chicks are ready to head for the ocean, however, the Bonus narrator says the trip is just a few hundred meters (a half-mile). We also learn that the breeding ground is just one mile from the French research station, which itself is close enough to water to be reached by icebreaker.

We are told of the long dangerous journey, but not how long it takes. Long sequences show the penguins making their long march.... Yet, after the chicks are old enough to withstand the cold on their own, we are told the parents make frequent trips back and forth to bring back food.

It could be the ice pack grows from 1 mile to 60/70 miles, but the only detail we get is that the ice pack grows enough for the mother penguins to have to walk an extra couple of days.

Inconsistant Times

We are told that the mommy penguin must transfer the egg to the daddy penguin quickly. If the egg lays on the ice more than a couple of seconds, we are warned, then it freezes. As narrators in both movies relate this, we watch as the egg spends a great deal of time on the ice (much more than 2-3 seconds), as the male penguin tries to figure out how to place it on his feet.

Nevertheless, both narrators declare the the egg trasfer a success. How would they know? Perhaps the most dramatic footage is of an abandoned egg cracking as its contents freeze and expand. We are never told why eggs are abandonned by males, who, we have been assured, are very caring.

This being sponsored by the National Geographic, I would have like to have had much, much more detail about the lives of penguins. For example, how long is the egg incubation period. (We are told newly-laid eggs contain beating hearts. This and other life-in-the-egg statements must make pro-abortionists grind their teeth.) How long does it take the chick to peck its way out of the shell. How long does it take the penguins to walk the 70 or 60 or 0.5 miles. We are never told. The only time periods we are given (other than the "seconds" mentioned above) is "months," and one reference to the mating period taking two weeks.

The Bonus shows explicit mating, while the movie only hints at it. Mating details are not described by either movie, however: "What is the daddy doing on top of they mommie?"

Only in the Bonus do we learn that Emperor Pengiuns can live to 40 years. Or that the chicks spend five years in the ocean before heading inland to mate. Or maybe it's four years -- both durations are stated.

Anthropomorphization

Both narrators give penguins human feelings, which the birds do not have. As a result, the moviemakers get caught in a trap of their own making. Here's an example: They show a penguin apparently mourning over an egg that froze. The soundtrack imposes a sorrowful sounding penguin call, along with sad sounding music.

Later, a petral (we only learn the name of the bird in the Bonus) reaches the colony, and attempts to eat chicks. The penguins stand around watching the bird's attack, as the chick struggles to break free of the predator's beak. Watching their young being eaten is apparently not a mournful experience. (The other helpless chicks are going to need some serious therapy later in life: "Why did that mommie let her baby be killed?")

When a chick-less penguin tries to kidnap another penguin's chick, the "group", we are told, intervenes. Or perhaps we were just seeing several penguins bumping into each other, as they often to.

When penguins do things we see as funny, the soundtrack plays humerous-sounding music. But it's funny only to us. Penguins have no sense of humour.

We are told the penguins are brilliant for huddling together for warmth, yet there is no explanation for the lone penguins we see some distance from the group during the blizzard. The only explanation that fits for me is that penguins are stupid, and not nearly as brilliant as the movie tries to make them out to be.

Contrast that with the moviemakers beig amazed at the lack of fear penguins have of people. The Bonus narrator reveres them for their "innocence.". I still think pengiuns are just stupid.

After the egg is transferred to the male, the females take off for the ocean -- because they are hungry, the narrator with the impressive-sounding voice tells us. Just because penguins haven't eaten for a couple months doesn't necessarily mean they experience hunger. What about the daddies that stay behind? They should be hungry too, yet they don't head off. The proper explanation is that the mommies return to the ocean so that they can bring back food for the babies.

Seals are depicted as evil for eating the mommie penguins. The moviemakers manage to make the seals look like snakes with gapping mouths as they attack the penguins underwater. In contrast, the penguins are shown as graceful swimmers, enjoing their time "back home" as they eat mommie and daddy and baby fishes -- even gobbling up fish caught in the underside of the ice pack.

We are told that when the penguins feet get tired, they slide on their stomaches, being propelled by their arm-wings. (How do the narrators know penguins slide because of tired feet?) Yet we clearly see the penguins using their feet to propelling themselves along on their stomaches. I think penguins use their stomaches because it's fun. Also, you see them crossing small crevices on their stomachs.

The movie tell us the penguins make their march inland to "where the ice is thicker." The Bonus agrees with that theory, but adds that the mating area is somewhat protected from wind. How would penguins know the thickness of ice? I think penguins head inland for protection from winter storms and predetors.

Clean Poop

The Antartic is described repeatedly as pristine, clean, etc. Indeed, the narrator of the Bonus goes to the extreme, claiming his very words dirty the snow and ice. Yet the movie makes no mention of the penguins creating huge areas of dirty ice from their droppings; nor does it ever show the brown ice.

The Bonus does show the large areas of fouled ice, and makes two references -- to the stink surrounding the colony, and the colony moving because of the soiled ice.

Other Stuff the Movie Doesn't Tell Us

The movie never never tells us what the chicks are fed, expept that the daddies secrete a milk-like substance in their mouths. Do the mommies feed the chicks milk or regurgitated fish or something else? The Bonus eventually mentions regurgitated fish.

When it gets really cold, the penguins huddle together for warmth. Only in the Bonus do we learn that the temperature in the middle of the group can reach 15C.

Only in the Bonus do we learn that roughly 25% of chicks don't make it to the ocean: the eggs freeze, the chicks freeze, the mothers fail to return with food, predetors eat the chicks, or the chicks can't handle the hike to the ocean.

Hint: When you get the DVD, you need only watch the Bonus movie: it is shorter, is narrated by someone who was actually there, provides more detail, and is more interesting than the original movie.

Even so, too much information is missing. I would have liked to have known what kind of movie camera could operate in extreme cold. How did they get the batteries to last long enough.

It is unfortunate that both remarkable movies suffer from such sloppy editing of the narration. It makes me wonder what other "facts" the National Geographic tells us are inaccurate.