ComputerWorld has a list of 21 technologies that had their life hyped out of them. These include:
Apple Lisa - not a failure. The Lisa was Mac v1. It was the second pointer toward the future of computing, which we are experiencing today. (The Xerox Star was the first pointer.)
Apple Newton - too big for its intended purpose, just as today's UMPCs are. I recall the pre-launch hype that Apple orchestrated; I still have a copy of the San Francisco computing newspaper that featured an interview with two of the developers. The "Aw shucks, this just pretty much changes everything from now on" attitude irritated me.
Digital audio tape - I really, really wished it had worked in the consumer world, since I was a high-end cassette kind of guy: back then, I bought a record, and then immediately made a tape copy to preserve the record. If DAT didn't have all those record company-imposed restrictions, it would have been ideal. Today we see them trying to kill MP3, but fortunately are failing.
DIVX - (not DivX) a DVD that self-destructs doesn't meet the consumer mindset. The concept destructed before the DIVX DVD could.
Dot-bombs - not a failure, because it is natural to have many new ideas spring up around new technology, of which the best (or best funded) (or the luckiest) survive. Dot.bombs are natural, and will occur again -- just like today with the many browser-based apps that are vying for viability.
Dreamcast - I'm not into game console units, so it never mattered to me.
E-books - I make part of my living from writing and selling ebooks, so I know this is not a failure. The failure lies with the big book publishers, who are unable to stick with a slow-growing market -- to my benefit!
IBM PCjr. - also not a failure. Many people could not afford the expensive IBM PC; we forget that it cost over $5000 in usable form. So they bought the PCjr, but then it was eclipsed by better machines with the quickly falling prices. The jr was a failure primarily in the eyes of professional computer pundits -- who got their eval PCs free from vendors.
Internet currency - I could never understand how microcurrency was supposed to work. Where is the profit in making tiny payments? Also not a failure, because PayPal has become the Internet currency.
Iridium - I'm not into sattelite phones, and I don't even like cell phones for their rip-off pricing. A recent study shows that Canada has amongst the worst cell phone pricing in the world.
Microsoft Bob - computers are hard to use, and covering up the difficulty with smiley faces does not make them easier to use. Watch my wife's frustrated reaction when confronted with dialog boxes -- even ones with a single button.
The Net PC - the concept was a raging success, because many businesses use stripped-down PCs as terminals, running TCP/IP.
NeXT - like the Lisa, a success because it was pointer to the future. NeXT is now the basis for OS X. At the time, however, the NeXT computer failed on delivery for one simple reason: it only had a CD drive when everyone still used 3.5" diskettes.
OS/2 - a pointer to Windows, especially Windows NT, the basis of Windows 2000/XP/Vista. It was good that OS/2 (and its hardware relation, PS/2) were failures, because after the huge runaway success of the PC, IBM didn't like how control ran away from them. The PS/2 and its OS/2 software were the first steps in locking down the personal computer, and fortunately it failed to work. Twenty years later, Microsoft is again copying one of IBM ideas by using Vista and Vista-doormat graphics boards to lock up the computer, to remove the word "personal."
The paperless office - a success in my office. I use very little paper; all my information products are digital.
Push technology - a success but in other formats. RSS and email are two examples of raging successes in push technology. As I always say, it's easier to have a magazine delivered to your door (push) than to go to the newsstand to buy it (pull).
QUBE - barely remember what this is.
Smart appliances - a stupid idea. No fridge is able to tell me when the milk is to low. Nor do I need a fridge to tell me. Nor do I want a tv/computer screen in my fridge, and not just because Samsung charges $1,000 more for it.
Speech recognition - some people use it, but generally a failure, and always will be failure. The whole concept of speech input is deadborn. Another of Bill Gate's many failed predictions; he needs to learn to give up on predicting.
Virtual reality - not a failure in big businesses, where it is used for oil exploration and aircraft construction.
Web TV - if fewer and fewer people watch tv, how does it make sense to force technology through it? Ideas like WebTV come from companies desperate for additional revenue sources -- so desperate they think only of what is possible, and not what is probable.
Recent Comments