Tomi T Ahonen is an ex-executive of Nokia
Tomi Ahonen likes writing long, run-on pieces on his blog communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands. Long-winded pieces that are fun to read on a Sunday afternoon, because he writes streams of conscience, complete with 'ha ha ha' inserted, as he mocks those who yelped against his earlier predictions, now come true. Also, he hates those involved in the destruction of Nokia.
This is what he says about the future mobile market in "Seems Like My Work Is Done: As we shift from Hunters in mobile industry to Farmers, most of the cool stuff is done and dusted":
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Android has won. Its ecosystem is now larger than that of Windows. The only outpost left to conquor is Apple's App Store, which Android is on track for overtaking in early 2015.
iPhones will continue to lose market share until it reaches about 10%, because iPhones are as niche as iMacs.
Windows Phone will remain below 3%, because cell phone carriers hate Microsoft, because it owns Skype, because it took away 40% of the world's telecom traffic and drove down prices. Nadella will sell off the Nokia acquisition.
Blackberry will remain popular only in the corporate and government markets.
Everyone else has no chance.
By 2017, all phones will be smartphones (phones that run apps that can be installed by users); no more feature phones (phones with fixed feature sets).
Premium SMS (paid short message service) last year made more money than the movie and music industries combined. But SMS (run by cell phone carriers) will be eclipsed by OTT (over-the-top services, like or Facebook Messenger or BBM for Android), because they are independent of the carrier. But this will take a long time, because six billion people use SMS, apparently.
Tablet sales will continue to fall, because they are immobilizers, not much better than transportable PCs: you have to stop to use a tablet, and so it is inconvenient compared to the large-screen smartphone.
Smartwatches are a failed market, with half being resold on eBay. (Considering how young the renewed smartwatch market is, I disagree. I recall the same returns problem with early digital cameras, until the breakthrough of usable resolution, 1600x1200. Smartwatches need the breakthrough of long-battery life, such as Citizen's solar powered watches.)
Social media is the new tobacco industry, whose addictive endorphin hits are the new nicotine drags.
The mobile industry has moved from hunter stage to farmer stage. Companies are consolidating, exiting, focusing on the bottom line. The era of cool is over.
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There. I saved you from reading 5,300 words. But if you want to: