ADSK Q2: Up 18%

Autodesk reports Q2 revenues of $620 million, up 18% over a year ago. The company expects FY09 revenues of $2.50-2.53 billion.

Will Future Earnings Dim?

Like most other CAD vendors, Autodesk has benefited from the relatively low US dollar. Being low, it make revenue from outside of the United States -- especially in Euros -- "artificially" higher. You can see the currency effect in the numbers Autodesk provided in its press release:

• EMEA revenue increased 31% -- but 15% in constant currency.
• Asia-Pacific revenue increased 18% -- but 11% in constant currency.
• Americas (North, South, and Central) increased 4% -- but figure for USA not broken out.

Barron's west coast editor Eric Savitz quotes Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi in Beware The Strengthening Dollar. :

If exchange rates stabilize at current levels, he says, the revenue lift from currency in Q3 will be less than half of what it was in Q2, and then become a neutral factor in Q4 and a drag in Q1. 

Most CAD vendors (and other companies with significant non-USA revenues) have been able to withstand the current economic unpleasantness by benefiting from the exchange rate imbalance. With the US$ strengthening on the news of the unpleasantness spreading to Europe, they must now plan for leaner quarters.